Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Diagnosing Employment Growth
Across Tennessee Counties
Employment Growth by County
County vs Statewide Average: 2018-2022 and 2022
Employment Growth by County
Tennessee:
2018-2022 = 2.27%
2022 = 4.76%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of employment growth across all of Tennessee's 95 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Tennessee Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the employment growth of Tennessee's 95 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2018-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Employment Growth by County
County vs Statewide Average: 2018-2022 and 2022
Employment Growth by County
white dot
Tennessee:
2018-2022 = 2.27%
2022 = 4.76%
This figure displays the 95 counties of Tennessee as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual employment growth rate over the long-term period (2018-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the employment growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 2.27%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 2.27% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (2.27%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 0 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2018-2022, while 0 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 0 counties whose most recent (2022) employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (4.76%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 0 counties whose employment growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 95 counties corresponding with their long-term (2018-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 2.27% over 2018-2022 and 4.76% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are the nineteen counties whose average annual employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (2.27%) and near-term (4.76%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are the thirteen counties whose long-term average annual employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.27%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Tennessee average (4.76%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are the nine counties whose long-term average annual employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (2.27%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (4.76%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are the fifty-four counties whose average annual employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (2.27%) and near-term (4.76%).
   
 
Summary of Tennessee's 95 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(4.76%)
Above
(4.76%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(2.27%)
0
0
0
Below
(2.27%)
0
0
0
 
0
0
0
 
   
   
 
Tennessee
Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2018-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
17
2.99
 
1
8.20
57,841
 
20
2.86
 
5
6.71
740,334
 
16
3.00
 
14
5.58
10,207
 
12
3.28
 
15
5.52
8,313
 
13
3.22
 
16
5.47
59,490
 
14
3.20
 
20
5.13
4,245
 
26
2.60
 
24
5.03
22,713
 
2
4.39
 
13
5.66
96,324
 
9
3.36
 
2
8.04
3,926
 
8
3.49
 
28
4.84
5,713
 
32
2.28
 
11
6.22
16,866
 
19
2.91
 
9
6.31
4,953
 
30
2.47
 
27
4.92
16,623
 
7
3.66
 
18
5.29
208,413
 
11
3.35
 
8
6.31
5,795
 
25
2.61
 
10
6.29
5,777
 
18
2.99
 
4
6.86
6,525
 
5
3.92
 
12
5.97
238,165
 
1
6.37
 
3
7.01
94,211
Slipping Counties
 
23
2.74
 
32
4.55
76,609
 
24
2.67
 
41
4.16
17,368
 
15
3.10
 
58
3.56
18,079
 
22
2.78
 
46
3.97
9,163
 
28
2.50
 
74
2.94
8,195
 
27
2.54
 
68
3.14
11,043
 
31
2.39
 
53
3.82
19,254
 
4
3.98
 
72
3.06
5,387
 
6
3.74
 
59
3.54
27,283
 
29
2.49
 
47
3.95
70,867
 
10
3.36
 
31
4.67
102,088
 
21
2.82
 
49
3.91
21,095
 
3
4.36
 
35
4.37
3,630
Gaining Counties
 
35
2.13
 
26
4.93
26,460
 
74
1.04
 
22
5.12
28,759
 
92
-0.53
 
7
6.39
5,628
 
61
1.38
 
19
5.15
22,506
 
88
0.07
 
25
4.98
16,346
 
36
2.13
 
17
5.29
354,286
 
78
0.78
 
6
6.52
16,815
 
50
1.69
 
23
5.04
12,128
 
68
1.22
 
21
5.12
11,912
Lagging Counties
 
46
1.75
 
40
4.25
7,015
 
38
2.12
 
45
4.00
4,027
 
62
1.36
 
80
2.42
62,046
 
77
0.82
 
90
1.42
14,391
 
33
2.18
 
83
2.35
5,312
 
89
-0.27
 
57
3.58
11,277
 
42
1.89
 
85
2.00
19,392
 
59
1.40
 
62
3.40
6,744
 
55
1.57
 
48
3.94
14,491
 
90
-0.34
 
39
4.30
3,152
 
76
0.83
 
78
2.75
12,048
 
53
1.64
 
63
3.39
36,550
 
70
1.22
 
61
3.45
6,335
 
39
2.02
 
51
3.90
28,454
 
79
0.77
 
52
3.85
19,132
 
60
1.38
 
64
3.34
22,080
 
83
0.55
 
38
4.33
37,594
 
80
0.76
 
50
3.90
4,526
 
47
1.75
 
43
4.10
42,780
 
40
1.93
 
33
4.48
287,774
 
34
2.14
 
65
3.33
2,109
 
85
0.51
 
79
2.66
12,329
 
87
0.10
 
81
2.40
20,028
 
73
1.07
 
69
3.12
8,267
 
63
1.35
 
67
3.15
12,787
 
81
0.57
 
77
2.78
17,158
 
91
-0.41
 
93
0.76
2,641
 
86
0.26
 
82
2.37
8,902
 
57
1.54
 
75
2.86
3,447
 
43
1.89
 
55
3.65
22,284
 
44
1.84
 
88
1.77
7,090
 
93
-0.75
 
95
0.30
1,987
 
67
1.24
 
87
1.82
9,549
 
69
1.22
 
92
0.85
26,230
 
84
0.54
 
30
4.73
9,313
 
56
1.57
 
44
4.07
9,508
 
54
1.62
 
56
3.61
79,505
 
48
1.71
 
42
4.15
15,799
 
41
1.91
 
54
3.66
9,437
 
95
-2.33
 
89
1.70
3,055
 
94
-1.91
 
91
1.18
2,059
 
37
2.13
 
66
3.31
53,779
 
45
1.82
 
94
0.71
27,266
 
49
1.70
 
34
4.42
38,264
 
65
1.32
 
29
4.76
8,740
 
66
1.31
 
60
3.49
715,218
 
64
1.34
 
71
3.07
8,964
 
58
1.45
 
73
2.95
4,950
 
75
0.96
 
37
4.35
94,944
 
71
1.20
 
84
2.08
7,002
 
52
1.66
 
70
3.10
1,897
 
82
0.57
 
76
2.82
20,127
 
51
1.68
 
36
4.36
88,757
 
72
1.18
 
86
1.98
16,547
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.27
 
4.76
4,506,394
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1.62
 
4.78
212,442,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_LSGL
 
   
Copyright © 2024. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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